Repackaging the model

[william white]

In light of the theme of this group I think the major problems with how we are selling freedom is SOS.
Most people that can be interested in Rand/Rothbard are already knowledgeable on the subject.
Likewise constitutionalism.

What is needed is maintenance of the above plus
More math models demonstrating the deficiencies of group think working off such liberal works as "Blinded by Randomness" Talib and "Collapse" Diamond.
The development and propagation of evolutionary economics and evolutionary politics.

This coming election cycle the LP will lurch to the left to pick up disillusioned Dems who can't stand Reps. That is the demographic our PR and spin should target.

[Richard (L-Resigned)]

"This coming election cycle the LP will lurch to the left to pick up disillusioned Dems who can't stand Reps. That is the demographic our PR and spin should target."

I couldn't agree more. Sliding further to the right would be counterproductive in defeating incumbent Democrats. It would either yield Lp candidates more single digit election results as Republicans/conservatives rally the "lesser of two evils" vote in an effort to defeat Democrats, or split the conservative vote making it easier for Democrats to win.

I've been suggesting Libertarians appeal to Greens via geolibertarianism in an effort to crossover "greens" and left leaning independents. I never would've thought before this past year that there might be a better chance of merging the Gp and the Lp than there is merging the Lp and the Cp. But I think if we can cross the G's over to the Lp, the C's will eventually crossover on their own. The Gp is already in the process of reworking their platform to be more "Libertarian" in an effort to increase their appeal to Libertarian voters. This past year the C's proved they're more concerned with promoting a religious agenda than building a competitive big tent force to promote liberty for everyone not just Christians.

[Richard (L-Resigned)]

I tried to edit my post above and repost it, but the site went down for maintenance and the edit didn't save. I wanted to add...

"If you think about it, what I'm suggesting isn't that far fetched when you consider this years National Convention had candidates representing, or appealing to, the Libertarian left (Gravel and Jingozian), the Libertarian right (Barr and Root), moderate Libertarians (Phillies), and traditional Libertarians (Ruwart and Kubby)."

[Valerie Rumer]

Have you read this?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/gregory/gregory175.html

[Old NY Bear]

Val - checked it out. Great article! Thanks for the link. It indirectly deals with some of the concerns I've had about libertarianism since I first came across the idea (around 1992), or more accurately its portrayal. So many of the discussions I've encountered have focused more on the economic side of things, with (seemingly at times) only lip service paid to the concept of individual freedom. Don't get me wrong. On the Barr site during the election, and here at mylibertyspace, there's been a more balanced discussion. However, when you hear any mention at all of libertarianism in the MSM, it's almost entirely confined to a "conservatism-lite" snubbing. Libertarianism is more complex than just social and/or economic anarchy, and this article helps make it more evident.

[Valerie Rumer]

One of the Ohio Libertarians sent me that link on myspace because of a discussion we were having, just passing it along :)

I have to admit, I only skimmed it (lol). I have been incredibly busy.

[william white]

Not that particular article but yeah. my skin crawls at some parts of the immigration debate. My attitude is that a security fence for the Canadian border would cost at least 3-5 times as much as one for the Mexican border and Canadian cops are better and more regularly paid. They are therefore both more competent and honest than is usually true of Mexican cops. With Canada the cost/benefit ratio of a security fence simply isn't there with Mexico it is. Otherwise Mexicans and Canadians should be treated more or less the same by INS. 90% of the problem is the bureaucracy is trying for anglosphere, American Union and Pacific security and treating American voters like mushrooms while pursuing these incompatible goals. That stokes the old xenophobic fires.

[Old NY Bear]

I agree with the principle that we should make sure our borders are secure.

A question for any and all - since borders are the demarcation between two countries, what are our neighbors (especially Mexico) doing on their side to help stem the tide of people entering the US unlawfully? More importantly, what can we do to show them it would be mutually beneficial for them to increase their efforts?

[william white]

Mexico is so disorganized that it has a bigger problem with illegal aliens than we do. Mexico subsidizes sodas or at least to as their version of food stamps. Mexico sewer workers use scuba gear to get the refrigerators that cause sewerage back ups.

[william white]

As to math models Chaos, Complexity, Catastrophe theory and Fuzzy logic are all fertile fields for rebuttals of the standard statist models.

[Richard (L-Resigned)]

Here's a snipet from an article in today's Newsweek.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/174299

Our Disinformed Electorate
By Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Brooks Jackson | factcheck.org
Dec 13, 2008

We saw more aggressive fact-checking by journalists in this election than ever before. Unfortunately, as a post-election Annenberg Public Policy Center poll confirms, millions of voters were bamboozled anyway.

[snip]

One reason is obvious: Political ads run thousands of times and reach far more people than articles on FactCheck.org. On our best day, we were read by 462,678 visitors. By contrast, the Obama campaign aired two ads claiming that McCain planned to cut Medicare benefits a total of 17,614 times at a cost estimated to be more than $7 million – which is several times more than FactCheck.org's entire annual budget.

There are deeper reasons as well. We humans all have a basic disposition to embrace our side's arguments and reject or ignore those offered by an opponent. Our polling reflects that. After taking differences in age, race, gender and education into account, Republicans were still 4.4 times more likely than Democrats to believe that Obama would raise taxes on most small businesses, and Democrats were 3.2 times more likely than Republicans to believe that McCain would cut Medicare benefits. Simply put, partisanship trumps evidence.

This also helps explain why so many people accept the most preposterous claims circulated by chain e-mail messages and ignorant or irresponsible bloggers. Our poll found nearly one in five (19 percent) falsely think Obama is a Muslim, and even more (22 percent) find truth in the claim that he's nearly half Arab. Republicans were 2.8 times more likely than Democrats to buy the Muslim claim, and just over twice as likely to swallow the half-Arab notion.

This is "group think" in action. We humans tend to marry, date, befriend and talk with people who already agree with us, and hence are less likely to say, "Wait a minute – that's just not true."

Consultants also dupe us by exploiting our partisan preconceptions. People tend to believe Democrats are more likely than Republicans to raise taxes, so McCain was pushing on an open door when he repeatedly claimed Obama would raise taxes on ordinary voters, and not just the most affluent. By the same token, Obama found it easy to sell his bogus claim that McCain planned to cut Medicare benefits by 22 percent, because Republicans have a reputation as opponents of social programs.

Voters aren't highly knowledgeable about government to begin with. Our poll shows that nearly one in three (31 percent) think Congress or the president, not the Supreme Court, have the final call on whether laws are constitutional. Nearly one in 10 (9.9 percent) think Republicans still control the House of Representatives, even though they've had two years to catch up on results of the 2006 elections.

And voters, once deceived, tend to stay that way despite all evidence. Nearly half in our poll (46 percent) agreed that Saddam Hussein played a role in the attacks of September 11, even though no solid evidence has ever emerged to support this notion.


[end]


This kind of supports what I was saying in a seperate mylibertyspace discussion recently. Future success for the Lp may not be so much dependent on "who" we run, changes to the platform etc, but rather an emphasis on educating and building/establishing a "tribal"/"team" identity in our communities. In short, those who say "the Libertarian party should not be a social club" may find less resistance to that statement, if in conjunction reinforce it with the idea that the Libertarian party would benefit from libertarians establishing local Libertarian Social Clubs across the nation. Something like "the Libertarian party doesn't need to be a social club for libertarians -the Libertarian Party needs libertarian social clubs."
For example, perhaps it would be easier to organize a state party affiliate in your county if you first organize a local "Libertarian" softball team and join your local softball league. "Herding cats" may just be a matter of first establishing something non-political and fun.

[william white]

Another major problem is that economists of every stripe claim that Great Depressions are avoidable and undesirable. All popular modern demographic models that I have seen, HS Dent jr. and Strauss & Howe, predicted a Great Depression (10+% unemployment beginning in 2009-10). Likewise a huge market downturn for 2009-12 was predicted by the presidential cycle ("Stock Trader's Almanac" Yale Hirsch does not cite a publication date but I have read citations of the STA mentioning this cycle going back to 1991) and reapportionment cycle (published in 1959 "Common Stocks and Business Cycles" E L Smith).

If age adjusted spending cycles and Lord love a duck constitutionally mandated 220 year old political cycles can predict such downturns more than a decade in advance methinks economists are clueless about the fact that nearly all animals engage in a four generation breeding cycles and Great Depressions are part of that cycle in humans. The standard LP defense that sound money and a free market means no big downturns needs a lot of work and needs to be part of moving a way from the confusion of libertarian and conservative. Free markets are desirable because they are free not necessarily better under all circumstances. We need to get back to our social Darwinist roots and stop worrying about being perfect.

[william white]

Just wanted you to know my blog is up at http://admin.1andl1.com the title is evolutionary libartarian politics.